EUR/USD Slides to One-Month Low: Can the Fed-ECB Divergence Push It Toward 1.15?

EUR/USD started the week under renewed pressure as the U.S. dollar strengthened on rising Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations and a fresh wave of geopolitical risk. The euro slipped toward $1.153, its lowest level in roughly a month, while the Dollar Index climbed toward 99.60. The move comes after U.S. August inflation and stronger core price growth encouraged markets to price a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate increase this week. The European Central Bank has also moved toward tighter policy, but the FX market is currently assigning greater weight to the U.S. rate outlook. Rising oil prices add another complication because the energy shock can increase inflation in both economies while also supporting the dollar through safe-haven demand. EUR/USD is now approaching an important technical area around 1.1500. A sustained break below that level could expose the 1.1460 region and potentially 1.1350. On the upside, a recovery above 1.1600 would be the first sign that dollar momentum is losing strength. MarketMindFX View: The euro’s short-term trend has turned more defensive, but the Fed decision could create a classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news setup. If the Fed hikes as expected but signals limited additional tightening, dollar gains could fade and EUR/USD could rebound toward 1.1650–1.1700. Key levels: EUR/USD support 1.1500, 1.1460 and 1.1350. Resistance 1.1600, 1.1650 and 1.1700. Source: Reuters and market pricing, September 14, 2026. MarketMindFX analysis.