Dollar’s Oil Shock Rally: Why USD/JPY Is Back Above 154

The U.S. Dollar has started the week with a fresh safe-haven bid as renewed Middle East tensions pushed energy prices sharply higher and unsettled global markets. The Dollar Index climbed toward 99.60, its strongest level since early September, while USD/JPY rebounded to around 154.60 after the yen had recently reached a seven-month high. Brent crude moved above $107 per barrel after fresh attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure increased concerns about supply disruptions. For FX traders, the important development is the interaction between oil, bond yields and central-bank expectations. Higher energy prices are lifting inflation expectations and pushing global yields higher, while risk aversion is increasing demand for the U.S. dollar. The yen still has a major policy catalyst ahead. Markets broadly expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates this week, but the immediate oil-driven risk-off move has temporarily shifted demand back toward the dollar. MarketMindFX View: USD/JPY is entering a high-volatility zone. A sustained move above 154.60 could expose the 155.00 area, while a reversal below 153.50 would suggest that renewed yen buying is overcoming the safe-haven dollar flow. The Fed decision on Wednesday and BOJ decision on Friday could determine the next major direction. Key levels: USD/JPY resistance 154.60 and 155.00. Support 153.50 and 153.00. DXY 99.00 remains an important psychological area. Source: Reuters, September 14, 2026. MarketMindFX analysis.